Brand-Mix Mathematics: Why Concentration Above 60% Is Dangerous
Distributors often underestimate how quickly a high-concentration portfolio collapses under stress. A simple stress test: if your top brand contributes 65% of revenue at 5% net margin, and that brand cuts margins to 3% (a common renegotiation pattern), your blended net margin drops by 1.3 percentage points overnight — often wiping out 30–40% of bottom-line profit. The same shock to a portfolio where the top brand is 38% causes a 0.76 pt drop, surviving comfortably. Concentration risk compounds when scheme structures or territory boundaries are simultaneously renegotiated, which principals time to coincide with quarterly reviews. Diversification is insurance with a positive expected return.
